Guides
Which first hundred days metrics actually hold up on a small sample?
First 100 days metrics that survive a small sample: cohort counts, the return curve, question density, and the four figures that mislead early.
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Guides
Guides
Scoring a launch against the prediction you wrote first
Launch planning case study: how a dated prediction, a pre-launch truth list and a channel split turned two paying customers into a readable result.
Guides
Is a launch planning mistake about to cost you the channel itself?
Launch planning mistakes sorted by what each one costs you: the reading, the channel, the goodwill, or your ability to ship the thing you just sold.
Guides
How to judge minimum viable offer tools by the jobs they do
Minimum viable offer tools judged as capabilities: taking money, describing terms, delivering by hand, and keeping the log, with the lock-in test.
Guides
Reading American competitor trails in state registries, USPTO filings and SEC EDGAR
State incorporation records, USPTO trademark filings and SEC EDGAR each leave a dated paper trail you can read free, and each one proves less than it seems to.
Guides
How US Census and BLS data size a market before you buy a report
US Census and BLS tables can size a US market before you pay for a report, if you know which data series counts buyers and which counts business risk.
Guides
How the SBA and SBDC network help you test an idea before you build
SBA district offices, SCORE mentors and SBDC counselors give US founders free market data, research hours and a hard stress test before anything is built.
Guides
Online survey vs customer interviews idea validation: which first?
Online survey vs customer interviews idea validation: a criteria table for choosing the first method, with US panel timing, costs and what neither proves.
Guides
Competitor validation framework: a stop rule for every pass
A competitor validation framework built on stop rules: when to end each research pass, what to log, and which open questions the page hands to the next test.
Guides
Founder readiness records: four documents to keep before paying for a tool
A plain specification for founder readiness records: runway, stop rule, conversation log and commitments, plus how to test any tool before you pay.
Guides
Market Validation Checklist: Buyer, Trigger, Stop Rule
A market validation checklist for tracing who approves a purchase, what triggers action, and what evidence should make you change course.
Guides
A minimum viable offer cuts the product, never the promise
Minimum viable offers are a targeting instruction rather than a size: cut the product, never the promise, deliver by hand, and design for ten rather than one.
Guides
Are problem discovery mistakes really about a broken record?
Problem discovery mistakes grouped by sample, listening and record, each with the check that catches it and the reason the record is cheapest to repair.
Guides
Founder readiness: a written stop rule, three jobs covered, commitments postponed
Founder readiness is a set of arrangements: what you can afford to lose, a written stop rule, three jobs covered, and irreversible commitments left for later.